Watch for US retail sales, factor sector surveys (Empire, Philly), CA manufacturing shipments, a speech by BoC Gov Carney (June 15th), Tuesday’s ECOFIN meeting, UK, EU and Swedish (notably in focus after the production numbers) CPI, NZ retail sales and speeches by RBNZ Governor Bollard and RBA Gov Stevens. On the central bank front, the SNB rate decision is due June 16th. Lastly, ECB president Trichet will speak in NYC.
CAD:
May employment +22,300 (cons: +20,000) and the jobless rate dipped to 7.4% (cons: unch at 7.6%). Full-time jobs +32,900; private sector +37,100. Decent. The numbers helped CAD outperform on key cross rate, but not versus USD. (Note though that the 200-dma at 0.9966 still looms as a barrier to any run to parity.) CAD suffered when US data turned mixed in early March, but might do relatively better if growth concerns sprout elsewhere. Still, we would feel better if CAD were outperforming in an environment of still solid global growth, but with the US gaining traction. We are not there right now, though it is unclear that the backdrop has deteriorating dramatically. Notably even as overall market sentiment has rolled over, the VIX index remains modest and US financial conditions quite slack. Past outbreaks of risk aversion typically featured a spike in VIX and a notable erosion in financial conditions. Not this time.
AUD/NZD:
Though AUD was an underperformer, and though it remains above 1.05, it feels heavier, most notably against NZD. AUD/NZD found support at 1.28, just ahead of support at 1.2781, the 2011 low. Note that though AUD/CAD is off its test of 1.0550, it remains above the 50-dma at 1.0275. As well, watch 1.0207, which was key resistance from November to late April.
CAD:
May employment +22,300 (cons: +20,000) and the jobless rate dipped to 7.4% (cons: unch at 7.6%). Full-time jobs +32,900; private sector +37,100. Decent. The numbers helped CAD outperform on key cross rate, but not versus USD. (Note though that the 200-dma at 0.9966 still looms as a barrier to any run to parity.) CAD suffered when US data turned mixed in early March, but might do relatively better if growth concerns sprout elsewhere. Still, we would feel better if CAD were outperforming in an environment of still solid global growth, but with the US gaining traction. We are not there right now, though it is unclear that the backdrop has deteriorating dramatically. Notably even as overall market sentiment has rolled over, the VIX index remains modest and US financial conditions quite slack. Past outbreaks of risk aversion typically featured a spike in VIX and a notable erosion in financial conditions. Not this time.
AUD/NZD:
Though AUD was an underperformer, and though it remains above 1.05, it feels heavier, most notably against NZD. AUD/NZD found support at 1.28, just ahead of support at 1.2781, the 2011 low. Note that though AUD/CAD is off its test of 1.0550, it remains above the 50-dma at 1.0275. As well, watch 1.0207, which was key resistance from November to late April.
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